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PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 7, 2028

Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Probability

39¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$11.1K

Liquidity

$566.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $11.1k traded against $566.9k of visible liquidity (0.02× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 22235h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 22234.6h

    LOW
  • 13:25Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 22235h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Category · Politics

Market Description

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 7, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

20 wallets
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