Wallet digest

active

Activity score

44/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$76.57

Total PnL

$-30.15

Realised

$-35.94

Win rate

6 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 14

FURIA
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
13 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$13.41
$2.41
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET
13 shares @ 40.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$12.50
$7.50
NO
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$7.12
$0.01
NO
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$6.27
$0.02
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
6 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$5.88
$2.88
NO
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$5.78
$0.06
NO
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$5.70
$0.03
NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
6 shares @ 95.5¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$5.49
$0.14
NO
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$5.04
$0.04
NO
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$4.73
$0.04

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:17 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$24.2K

Trades

Buy share

50%

Window

May 31, 13:10 UTC → Jun 26, 10:27 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $0.00

SELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$6.1K@100¢May 31, 13:06 UTC

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

18/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 6 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

review

10 live trades, 4 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

limited

4 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

$12.0K · 50% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?50% of recorded volume$12.0K Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?25% of recorded volume$6.1K Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?25% of recorded volume$6.1K

Profile dimensions

Activity56 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence20 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry29 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk74 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 10
Avg trade size: $4.8K
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 26, 00:13 UTC
Last active: Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
Win rate sample: 6 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:26:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data