Untidy-Checkbook
0xda08e030b44b0f51f2154b853a8da60704d30e21
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$198.06
Total PnL
$-986.54
Realised
$116.78
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 5.3¢·now 4.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$46.50
$-6.10
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 31.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Petr Yan next?
62 shares @ 83.8¢·now 55.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.91
$-17.73
- YES
Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 15?
42 shares @ 71.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$28.73
$-0.84
- YES
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
50 shares @ 30.6¢·now 46.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.05
$7.75
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.50
$-6.50
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100 shares @ 5.3¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.85
$-0.45
- YES
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.50
$-3.50
- YES
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
10 shares @ 13.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$2.60
$1.30
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?
300 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.25
$-16.35
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week?$97.18Jul 29, 07:29 UTC
- REWARD$1.42Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$13.77Jul 28, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$1.53Jul 28, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week?$40.49Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Japan" be in the headlines this week?$4.88Jul 28, 18:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$77.18Jul 28, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$1.58Jul 28, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$18.60Jul 28, 15:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week?$7.86Jul 28, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump declassifies new UFO files by August 15?$1.44Jul 28, 13:08 UTC
- REWARD$1.33Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week?$16.47Jul 27, 07:06 UTC
- REWARD$2.33Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$16.00Jul 26, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$7.70Jul 26, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$7.46Jul 26, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$49.70Jul 26, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week?$160.00Jul 26, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$62.00Jul 26, 09:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $27.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 03:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 07:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.