Attentive-Obsession-Pagoda
0xda2453afde07bccc361c6edb257849ade5e77e54
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$153.09
Total PnL
$-174.56
Realised
$-8.41
Win rate
38%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
62 shares @ 45.5¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$36.34
$8.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 16?
67 shares @ 42.5¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$27.60
$-0.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 16?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$19.00
$-1.00
- NO
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?
20 shares @ 84.6¢·now 69.5¢·exp Sep 17, 2026$13.89
$-3.03
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
14 shares @ 71.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.11
$2.17
- NO
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
10 shares @ 79.7¢·now 92.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.26
$1.29
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in July?
13 shares @ 39.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.96
$1.88
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?
8 shares @ 84.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.47
$-0.91
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
5 shares @ 80.1¢·now 93.4¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$4.67
$0.67
- TEAM SECRET
LoL: Team Secret vs Sentinels (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B
8 shares @ 65.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$4.45
$-0.49
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$10.70Jul 14, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 16?$9.82Jul 14, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 16?$9.65Jul 14, 10:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$6.40Jul 14, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIasi Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Moyuka Uchijima$1.81Jul 14, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIasi Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Moyuka Uchijima$7.27Jul 14, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 16?$9.89Jul 14, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 16?$10.96Jul 14, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 16?$9.74Jul 14, 07:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 16?$8.69Jul 14, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 16?$10.55Jul 14, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$5.53Jul 14, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$12.28Jul 14, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$10.82Jul 14, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMGranby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady$7.25Jul 14, 04:31 UTC
- TRADESELLGranby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady$8.52Jul 14, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYGranby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady$8.40Jul 14, 03:53 UTC
- TRADESELLGranby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady$5.12Jul 14, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYGranby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady$5.77Jul 14, 03:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pamela Evette replace Graham as South Carolina Senator?$7.50Jul 14, 01:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $7.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 10:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 11:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.