0xda84f286f2a28b5f6b1ee37abb3f1728ec363d98
0xda84f286f2a28b5f6b1ee37abb3f1728ec363d98
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$19.27
Total PnL
$-106.95
Realised
$8.25
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?
224 shares @ 9.4¢·now 7.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$15.65
$-5.34
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
75 shares @ 6.7¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.87
$-2.13
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
83 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.75
$-9.25
- YES
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
3000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?
259 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-7.20
- YES
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?
167 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$5.44Jul 18, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-18?$2.14Jul 18, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?$21.83Jul 13, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$10.40Jul 6, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$0.21Jun 18, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?$2.08Jun 14, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?$1.04Jun 14, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?$0.67Jun 14, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$23.40Jun 14, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$65.45Jun 12, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$5.20Jun 12, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$5.20Jun 12, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.12Jun 12, 09:33 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$16.11Jun 12, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$104.00Jun 10, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$10.40Jun 8, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$16.00Jun 8, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$10.78Jun 8, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?$10.40Jun 7, 18:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?$2.20Jun 7, 17:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $14.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 26, 08:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 21:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.