Bronze-Tension
0xda91750e9f10e4357feb12ea68961abba0cad760
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-17.5K
Realised
$-5.5K
Win rate
21%
124 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
31910 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-101.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 18?
3271 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-159.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 18?
3045 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-35.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 4?
2389 shares @ 19.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-468.45
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
1500 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-13.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on April 4?
1425 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-367.11
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?
1400 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.99
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13?
1221 shares @ 30.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-377.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on April 16?
1116 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-30.56
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on May 10?
1113 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-23.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on August 11?$2.05Aug 11, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 11?$10.27Aug 11, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 9?$9.71Aug 9, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 8?$24.95Aug 8, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 8?$15.56Aug 8, 12:15 UTC
- REWARD$1.31Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7?$1.75Aug 7, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7?$9.22Aug 7, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 7?$12.28Aug 7, 07:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?$58.11Aug 6, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?$4.78Aug 6, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?$9.70Aug 6, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 6?$6.45Aug 6, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 6?$0.09Aug 6, 14:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 6?$58.15Aug 6, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?$0.10Aug 6, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?$14.00Aug 6, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 6?$2.91Aug 6, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?$10.71Aug 6, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?$6.56Aug 6, 12:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 124 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
124 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $11.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 09:36 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 09:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 124 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.