Huge-Refuge
0xdaa6a2cd4ba545befb3dbdc25d2b444c46873e62
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$134.48
Realised
$130.43
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 17, 2026?
714 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$709.73
$1.12
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
1413 shares @ 25.3¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$318.02
$-40.08
- YES
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
771 shares @ 40.4¢·now 37.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$285.24
$-26.14
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
867 shares @ 29.7¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$272.99
$15.55
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
510 shares @ 29.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$173.40
$25.50
- YES
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
500 shares @ 30.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$157.50
$7.30
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
395 shares @ 32.4¢·now 35.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$138.17
$10.21
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
900 shares @ 8.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$130.50
$58.50
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?
1253 shares @ 13.8¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$106.53
$-66.07
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
365 shares @ 22.4¢·now 26.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$94.90
$13.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$63.30Jul 21, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$5.48Jul 21, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$8.27Jul 21, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$4.40Jul 21, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?$52.47Jul 21, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$9.19Jul 21, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$30.25Jul 21, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$1.61Jul 21, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$24.00Jul 21, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?$2.21Jul 21, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.49Jul 21, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.68Jul 21, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$81.00Jul 21, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$16.00Jul 21, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$24.00Jul 21, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$24.00Jul 21, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$62.70Jul 21, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$8.00Jul 21, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?$149.76Jul 21, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$2.90Jul 21, 16:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $44.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 22:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 18:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.