Long-Term-Experimentation
0xdaad76c1ded17dc1a10e114c5b6660da74b555ac
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$175.45
Total PnL
$-6.1K
Realised
$-60.14
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
434 shares @ 46.3¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$145.46
$-55.54
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
101 shares @ 30.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.66
$-13.63
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
334 shares @ 37.7¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.49
$-117.51
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
56 shares @ 18.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.50
$-6.50
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
95 shares @ 27.3¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.33
$-24.67
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
11029 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-12.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1PM ET
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?
1205 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
1079 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-49.94
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
1040 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-25.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$201.00May 4, 08:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Apr 15, 07:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$1.79Apr 15, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$5.00Apr 15, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$3.23Apr 15, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$5.00Apr 15, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$1.00Apr 14, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$3.65Apr 14, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$2.00Apr 14, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$1.00Apr 14, 04:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$0.27Apr 12, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$1.00Apr 12, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$1.00Apr 12, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.00Apr 12, 01:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$42.79Apr 12, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$1.00Apr 11, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$40.00Apr 11, 23:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UAE strike Iran by April 30?$14.48Apr 8, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UAE strike Iran by April 30?$6.68Apr 8, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$0.84Apr 7, 01:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $11.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 27, 01:27 UTC
- Last active
- May 4, 08:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".