Alienated-Toll
0xdaca34d9af0ff87be45cb51f6174aeb2c0466c92
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$24.28
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-81.51
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 97.6¢·now 97.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.98
$-0.02
- NO
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 97.1¢·now 97.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.89
$0.01
- NO
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.80
$0.03
- NO
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 shares @ 96.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.74
$0.08
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2 shares @ 83.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.03
$0.27
- NO
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.83
$0.17
- NO
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 83.7¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$1.65
$-0.15
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1 shares @ 96.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.32
$0.03
- NO
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.05
$0.05
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$1.04Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?$2.80Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMMamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?$1.34Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?$4.11Jun 24, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?$6.59Jun 18, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?$6.02Jun 16, 03:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$2.13Jun 13, 23:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$1.47Jun 12, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$2.00Jun 11, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?$3.71Jun 6, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?$5.68Jun 1, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?$5.02May 30, 08:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marvell Q1 Data Center revenue be above $1.7B?$1.41May 27, 22:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$3.00May 27, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25?$1.03May 24, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 23?$1.02May 23, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 23?$1.00May 22, 14:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 18?$1.25May 21, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 18?$1.23May 17, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$1.02May 17, 02:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $8.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 09:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.