Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$1.7K
Liquidity
$20.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 876.4h
- 01:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 876h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 01:37PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 17¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 17¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 17¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 16¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 14¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 12¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 12¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 12¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 10¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 10¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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