0xdb0bb5c5d044008df317060d58222e5202d20157
0xdb0bb5c5d044008df317060d58222e5202d20157
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
24
Open notional
$118.90
Total PnL
$11.69
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?
11 shares @ 35.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$11.18
$7.19
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 50.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$9.15
$2.52
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
9 shares @ 80.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$8.09
$1.09
- YES
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
9 shares @ 77.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.32
$0.32
- NO
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
9 shares @ 80.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.31
$0.31
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
7 shares @ 67.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$7.30
$2.35
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
9 shares @ 74.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.94
$-0.05
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
12 shares @ 57.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.94
$-0.06
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
10 shares @ 72.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.02
$-0.91
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
11 shares @ 62.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.81
$-1.19
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?$4.79Jun 19, 10:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$2.02Jun 19, 05:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$6.81Jun 19, 05:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026?$6.51Jun 18, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$1.45Jun 18, 13:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?$10.15Jun 18, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 01:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?$0.00Jun 17, 22:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference?$3.00Jun 17, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$1.61Jun 17, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference?$1.80Jun 16, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026?$4.93Jun 15, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMSPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15?$0.00Jun 15, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?$2.30Jun 14, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15?$3.52Jun 14, 02:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?$6.44Jun 13, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?$6.79Jun 13, 05:07 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12?$0.00Jun 12, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12?$5.04Jun 12, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$1.79Jun 11, 09:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $3.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 21:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 10:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.