Incomparable-Hive
0xdb3344aeac849a4b01853ec687e1f1fe78d8534f
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
75
Open notional
$2.85
Total PnL
$-160.60
Realised
$3.99
Win rate
100%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 75- YES
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
40 shares @ 3.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.34
$0.14
- NO
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
40 shares @ 3.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.34
$0.14
- YES
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.12
$-0.87
- YES
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.03
$-0.47
- YES
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.03
$-0.47
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 27?
300 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- NO
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 75000?
300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-0.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on April 29?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 30?
200 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- NO
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 76000?
150 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$10.00Jul 14, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$5.00Jul 14, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?$5.00Jul 14, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother crypto hack over $100m by June 30?$1.00Jun 29, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.20Jun 16, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.20Jun 16, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.38Jun 3, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.01Jun 3, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.40Jun 3, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.14May 31, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.10May 29, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.10May 29, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.05May 26, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$2.10May 23, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.05May 14, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.10May 14, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.10May 14, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.05May 14, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00May 13, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.50May 12, 12:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $0.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 13:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 10:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.