Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30?
Probability
42¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-12.8pp
24h Vol
$323.00
Liquidity
$2.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 13pp over 24h
Now 42¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6015h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 33.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6014.5h
- 14:28SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6015h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.8pp
to 42¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.8pp
to 42¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.2pp
to 40¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 50¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 50¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 55¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 55¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 55¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.1pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.9pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.9pp
to 55¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Decentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (33.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).