Free-Hobbit
0xdb493ef05892a8ba554f37f1005674ffce58c150
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$213.19
Total PnL
$-227.55
Realised
$-27.62
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
183 shares @ 22.4¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$107.72
$66.72
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
116 shares @ 26.7¢·now 25.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.01
$-1.99
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
31 shares @ 49.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.96
$7.96
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
43 shares @ 46.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.22
$0.22
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
86 shares @ 20.1¢·now 19.9¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$17.06
$-0.22
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
16 shares @ 61.1¢·now 58.7¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$9.61
$-0.39
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?
101 shares @ 29.5¢·now 3.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.86
$-26.14
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
13 shares @ 77.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.49
$-8.51
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?
126 shares @ 4.0¢·now 1.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.26
$-3.74
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?
382 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$5.15Jul 13, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.05Jul 9, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$10.32Jul 6, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$10.27Jul 2, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$10.09Jul 2, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$10.22Jul 2, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?$5.19Jul 2, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.05Jun 30, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$10.28Jun 30, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$10.30Jun 29, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?$1.04Jun 26, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?$5.17Jun 26, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?$1.04Jun 26, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?$5.19Jun 26, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?$1.00Jun 25, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?$11.00Jun 25, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?$26.00Jun 25, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.05Jun 25, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$2.10Jun 24, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$10.39Jun 24, 21:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 08:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 16:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.