Rich-Firewall
0xdb49735a950b87f54c9f45b5914ccb7ecb8c7734
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$8.09
Total PnL
$-210.90
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
14 shares @ 7.3¢·now 11.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.60
$0.60
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
4 shares @ 28.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.96
$-0.04
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 18.7¢·now 17.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.93
$-0.07
- NO
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 10.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.78
$-0.22
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
45 shares @ 2.2¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.66
$-0.34
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.65
$-0.35
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.62
$-0.38
- YES
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
37 shares @ 2.7¢·now 1.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.37
$-0.63
- NO
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.36
$-0.64
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 20?$0.00Jul 21, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.00Jul 20, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?$1.05Jul 20, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 20?$1.05Jul 20, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 20, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$1.00Jul 20, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 20?$1.07Jul 20, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYPalermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri$1.05Jul 20, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$1.05Jul 20, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.00Jul 20, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Moyuka Uchijima$1.05Jul 20, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.00Jul 20, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$1.00Jul 20, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 20, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.00Jul 20, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 20, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?$1.00Jul 20, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$102.95Jul 19, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill YouTube take down Steven Crowder’s election livestream?$1.00Nov 4, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Taylor Swift attend Kamala's Pennsylvania rally?$1.00Nov 4, 22:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $10.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 4, 22:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 12:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.