Defiant-Grenade
0xdb59e28cb2e4518cc4d3e82aae73d51759515cc4
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
24
Open notional
$21.33
Total PnL
$-57.07
Realised
$-0.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 22?
9 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$9.03
$0.03
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19?
6 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.11
$0.01
- NO
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.14
$0.00
- NO
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
2 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.11
$0.01
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.94
$0.03
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 11?
5358 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.36
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21?
2042 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.08
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 9-15?
1124 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 29?
1111 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.22
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10?
1107 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 22?$9.00Jul 21, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19?$6.10Jul 14, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$2.10Jul 8, 12:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$3.27Jul 3, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$3.14Jul 3, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21?$4.08Jun 21, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11?$2.10Jun 11, 02:51 UTC
- REWARD$0.66Jun 5, 00:20 UTC
- REWARD$1.04Jun 4, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.13Jun 2, 02:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.30Jun 2, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$3.24Jun 2, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2?$2.14Jun 2, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 24?$2.10May 24, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.29May 21, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 15?$2.10May 15, 02:00 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by April 30?$2.13May 6, 02:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?$3.16May 6, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.13May 6, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 6?$2.12May 6, 01:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $354.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 03:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 01:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.