Outlying-Receiver
0xdb861c1cf148338119e2b481f13572b938b41dc5
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$4.1K
Total PnL
$-22.6K
Realised
$-3.0K
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
3450 shares @ 87.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.2K
$155.25
- NO
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
885 shares @ 70.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$774.38
$154.88
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
274 shares @ 67.0¢·now 54.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$148.12
$-35.16
- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
18000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-173.99
- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?
10000 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
8184 shares @ 36.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.0K
- YES
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?
6371 shares @ 49.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-3.2K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.28Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$186.30Jul 15, 20:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.00Jul 12, 01:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $42.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 23:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.