Troubled-Lining
0xdbc45db6ba0618e6182109854e8d19a77b4f4347
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$887.97
Total PnL
$-431.96
Realised
$114.03
Win rate
50%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
25124 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$188.43
$-37.66
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
142 shares @ 59.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$84.00
$0.06
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
72 shares @ 90.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$66.66
$1.69
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?
649 shares @ 12.7¢·now 7.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$48.69
$-33.56
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
104 shares @ 55.6¢·now 45.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.48
$-10.56
- YES
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
75 shares @ 82.3¢·now 59.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$44.50
$-17.09
- NO
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
59 shares @ 66.8¢·now 64.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$38.15
$-1.36
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
343 shares @ 12.3¢·now 10.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$35.50
$-6.54
- YES
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
218 shares @ 60.6¢·now 14.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$31.64
$-100.63
- YES
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
57 shares @ 57.3¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.33
$-1.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$3.33Aug 9, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$0.13Aug 9, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$209.14Aug 9, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?$23.65Aug 9, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?$24.00Aug 9, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$1.01Aug 9, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to a wither skeleton?$1.01Aug 9, 00:59 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 9, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai or Speed die to a ghast?$1.02Aug 8, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai or Speed die to a zombified piglin?$1.40Aug 8, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai or Speed die to a wither skeleton?$1.01Aug 8, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$5.00Aug 8, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$12.00Aug 8, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$2.02Aug 8, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$1.01Aug 8, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$1.01Aug 8, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$1.01Aug 8, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$1.01Aug 8, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$12.00Aug 8, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$3.01Aug 8, 13:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $9.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 7, 22:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 08:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.