Twin-Desire
0xdcb9bb53ab45319bf5d6774c6b6cbe36bd805120
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-74.75
Realised
$-0.55
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will a Democrat win Tennessee US Senate Election?
150 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win New York US Senate Election?
140 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.14
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win North Dakota US Senate Election?
132 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.13
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Maryland US Senate Election?
130 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.13
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Connecticut US Senate Election?
124 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.12
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election?
120 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.12
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Missouri US Senate Election?
111 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.11
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin US Senate Election?
110 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.11
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Minnesota US Senate Election?
102 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Nevada US Senate Election?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$185.63Jul 2, 08:54 UTC
- REWARD$0.63Jul 1, 00:20 UTC
- REWARD$1.03Jun 30, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$185.81Jun 29, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?$185.64Jun 29, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?$185.92Jun 29, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYFortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5$41.99Jun 28, 18:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 27, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYHenan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5$31.20Jun 26, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$262.08Jun 26, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$262.48Jun 26, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$261.09Jun 26, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$261.48Jun 26, 16:24 UTC
- REWARD$1.80Jun 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$150.72Jun 24, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$156.00Jun 24, 23:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$60.50Jun 24, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$63.00Jun 24, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?$269.44Jun 18, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?$269.74Jun 17, 20:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $135.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 6, 18:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 08:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.