GeopoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 30, 2026

Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$679.11

Liquidity

$94.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.1pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:54
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 3774h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 3774.1h

    LOW
  • 17:55Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 3774h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Russian governmentOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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