Considerate-Commandment
0xdd3beadff0dee12b8f8d572ae55a6b8bc1fc9f3a
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$201.92
Total PnL
$-401.28
Realised
$107.09
Win rate
90%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
22 shares @ 29.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$7.21
$0.87
- YES
Will SoundHound AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?
54 shares @ 13.0¢·now 11.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.14
$-0.86
- YES
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
38 shares @ 9.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.00
$1.54
- YES
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch?
63 shares @ 10.7¢·now 7.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.95
$-1.72
- YES
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?
88 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.94
$-2.06
- YES
Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
22 shares @ 11.6¢·now 22.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.82
$2.32
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by July 31?
43 shares @ 8.2¢·now 9.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.08
$0.58
- YES
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $7B in 2026?
24 shares @ 20.6¢·now 16.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.06
$-0.90
- YES
Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?
73 shares @ 9.6¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.83
$-3.17
- YES
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 9.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.60
$0.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$0.61Jul 29, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$1.36Jul 29, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?$4.21Jul 29, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$1.22Jul 29, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$1.41Jul 29, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$1.15Jul 29, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$3.00Jul 29, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$0.50Jul 29, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?$4.48Jul 29, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?$1.45Jul 29, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?$3.50Jul 29, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026?$0.63Jul 29, 14:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026?$3.47Jul 29, 14:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$1.00Jul 29, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$0.99Jul 29, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$5.37Jul 29, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$0.36Jul 29, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of July 27 2026?$4.80Jul 29, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$3.46Jul 29, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?$0.14Jul 29, 10:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 73 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
73 closed markets, 90% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 17:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.