Bulky-Pension
0xde14b790ed0f7a7b4f4c7837af28769d96bd8341
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
82
Open notional
$54.68
Total PnL
$-268.28
Realised
$3.39
Win rate
20%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 82- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
75 shares @ 13.4¢·now 20.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$14.96
$4.96
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
98 shares @ 10.2¢·now 14.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$14.56
$4.56
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
17 shares @ 17.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$11.69
$8.79
- YES
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$4.92
$3.92
- YES
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
16 shares @ 16.1¢·now 19.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$3.19
$0.60
- NO
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
5 shares @ 41.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.72
$-3.28
- YES
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11 shares @ 18.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.67
$-0.33
- UNDER
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- OVER
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners
1 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$0.84Jul 12, 02:58 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?$2.09Jul 12, 02:57 UTC
- TRADESELLArgentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners$0.84Jul 12, 02:37 UTC
- TRADESELLArgentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score$4.34Jul 12, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$3.08Jul 12, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners$2.07Jul 12, 02:13 UTC
- TRADESELLArgentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners$1.03Jul 12, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$1.04Jul 12, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners$2.05Jul 12, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?$2.09Jul 12, 00:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score$2.05Jul 12, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$1.04Jul 11, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLNorway vs. England: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$0.75Jul 11, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLNorway vs. England: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$1.78Jul 11, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLNorway vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners$7.59Jul 11, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLNorway vs. England: O/U 3.5$5.74Jul 11, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?$5.39Jul 11, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLNorway vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners$4.76Jul 11, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners$3.09Jul 11, 22:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 19:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 02:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.