Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-france-reach-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-final renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-france-reach-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-final/markdown.

SportsExpires Jul 20, 2026

Creator

Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Probability

40¢

-2.0pp

24h

+3.0pp

24h Vol

$79.3K

Liquidity

$75.5K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Divergence / timeline check

60% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Confidence below paper gate

Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

Divergence / timeline checkclear
60% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score: Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
Capacity: Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
Liquidity: Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.

Explanation packet2026-06-16.1

DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority

What can be learned

Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernellearning_report_metricspromotion_gate+2

live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 20, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Official FIFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.0pp 7d

40¢

Jun 23, 2026, 05:00 UTCJun 30, 2026, 04:07 UTC

updated 04:08:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-30T04-08Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 40¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Divergence observation firing
Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -2.0pp vs. 24h +3.0pp.

What to track next

Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Watch the 1h vs 24h trend on the chart above — divergence resolves either by 1h reverting to the 24h direction or by the 24h trend flipping.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 20, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Official FIFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring

Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official FIFA data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Jul 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 475.9h
LOW
04:08Signal
Short-term vs. trend divergence
Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -2.0pp vs. 24h +3.0pp.
MEDIUM

Price movement

+3.0pp over the last 24h, now 40¢.

Biggest hourly move: +8.0pp at Jun 28, 21:00 UTC (to 40¢).

Show top 8 of 46 hourly moves

04:00 · +5.5pp → 42¢
02:00 · +6.0pp → 43¢
00:00 · +6.0pp → 42¢
Jun 28, 23:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 38¢
Jun 28, 21:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 40¢
Jun 28, 20:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 39¢
Jun 26, 14:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 32¢
Jun 26, 13:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 32¢

updated 04:08:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 04:08:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?"?

As of Tue, 30 Jun 2026 04:08:00 GMT, YES is priced at 40% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.0pp in the last 24 hours, -2.0pp in the last hour, and +2.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 20, 2026 (2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$79.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $392.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $75.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket