Dead-Manner
0xde2b15f2ae139dbfe6f6312f8f61edfa6d0173a0
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-9.89
Realised
$-40.47
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
2062 shares @ 87.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$41.24
- NO
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
13 shares @ 45.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.29
$6.43
- NO
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?
4 shares @ 41.9¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.84
$2.16
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1 shares @ 44.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.70
$0.27
- YES
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.12
$-1.04
- NO
Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?
4 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.76
- YES
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
46 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.72
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 105.5 billion views by December 31? $0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anca Alexandrescu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Myles Garrett break the NFL sack record?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Julian Sayin win the Heisman Trophy?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 3%?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMGlean IPO in 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill 0xBclub win the Defi App trading competition?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Emilio Gonzalez win the 2025 Miami mayoral election?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMRemote IPO in 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $330.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 08:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 20:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.