Sugary-Doctrine
0xde340ea7b2f6dcbfd5f40c0b4742544f12c38397
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$41.82
Total PnL
$-22.75
Realised
$-1.09
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 61%?
20 shares @ 40.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$20.00
$12.00
- NO
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
8 shares @ 40.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$7.48
$4.48
- YES
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$5.88
$4.88
- NO
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
3 shares @ 73.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.77
$0.43
- NO
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.16
$0.15
- NO
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.08
$0.08
- YES
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
1 shares @ 91.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.19
$0.11
- YES
Revolut IPO before 2027?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.26
$-1.54
- YES
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
44 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-4.33
- NO
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
19 shares @ 46.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-8.78
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?$1.11Feb 16, 18:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?$2.06Feb 16, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.98Feb 12, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.02Feb 12, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYRevolut IPO before 2027?$1.80Feb 12, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Frankenstein" win Best Costume Design at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?$1.00Feb 12, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?$0.17Feb 12, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?$1.02Feb 12, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?$1.00Feb 12, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?$1.11Feb 12, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?$1.11Feb 12, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?$1.11Feb 12, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?$1.17Feb 12, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?$1.07Feb 12, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?$1.03Feb 12, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?$0.99Feb 12, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?$1.08Feb 12, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?$1.02Feb 12, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?$1.21Feb 12, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?$1.07Feb 12, 12:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 8, 20:57 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 16, 18:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.