Negative-Oregano
0xde39fd417ef9b36f6f4705f6af3153ffef2df9ab
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-949.28
Realised
$89.23
Win rate
30%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?
4035 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-84.03
- NO
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
3930 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.93
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?
3352 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
3000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-8.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
3000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- CANADIENS
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes
2715 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.43
- MINNESOTA TWINS
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
1940 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.94
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?
1764 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- SUNS
Thunder vs. Suns
1617 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.91
- NO
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
1560 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$1.06Jun 20, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$1.07Jun 20, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$1.06Jun 20, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.07Jun 20, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.07Jun 20, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?$8.00Jun 20, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$1.56Jun 19, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$0.64Jun 19, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$1.07Jun 17, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$4.00Jun 17, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$2.00Jun 17, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$6.00Jun 17, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$1.72Jun 16, 23:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$1.67Jun 16, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET$1.07Jun 16, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$1.07Jun 16, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$1.07Jun 16, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$7.00Jun 16, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?$5.00Jun 16, 04:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)$40.25Jun 15, 05:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
33 closed markets, 30% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 21:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 17:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.