Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

1. 1

   Down 9pp over 24h

   Now 61¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Light volume — move on a thin book

   Only $6.3k traded against $41.0k of visible liquidity (0.15× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.