Rigid-Simple
0xde540b4425ae19309c9bcf9ef8be9414a672444d
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
149
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$87.07
Win rate
46%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 149- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November 16?
21180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-33.68
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November 16?
21180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-33.68
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112,000 on November 16?
21180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-33.68
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 16?
21180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-33.68
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November 16?
21180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-33.68
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on November 16?
21180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-33.68
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 16?
21180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-33.68
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on November 16?
20385 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-38.06
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November 16?
20385 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-38.06
- YES
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 19?
8092 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-0.66
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?$18.58Jan 4, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?$11.09Jan 2, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?$0.80Jan 1, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$11.77Jan 1, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$10.66Jan 1, 17:29 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by December 31?$10.77Jan 1, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by December 31?$10.75Dec 31, 17:57 UTC
- REDEEMEpstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? $10.76Dec 31, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYEpstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? $10.74Dec 24, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?$10.70Dec 24, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?$10.69Dec 23, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$0.13Dec 17, 23:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$9.90Dec 17, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$17.50Dec 17, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$2.95Dec 17, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$13.50Dec 17, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$10.00Dec 17, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$3.50Dec 17, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$1.00Dec 17, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$4.85Dec 17, 23:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
46 closed markets, 46% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $6.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 16, 16:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 4, 13:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.