Remorseful-Smell
0xde728552ba566352a3d6a96e63adc749afe2b5b1
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
109
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$440.33
Win rate
65%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- YES
Will Liverpool finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?
1512 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-14.85
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?
1217 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 5?
1184 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-9.70
- NO
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
1110 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27?
860 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-8.60
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 29?
756 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-138.48
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 22?
620 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-257.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 11?
598 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?
550 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-38.98
- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
510 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?$0.37Jul 30, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?$0.10Jul 30, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?$0.14Jul 30, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?$2.19Jul 30, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?$0.02Jul 30, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$0.09Jul 26, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$1.00Jul 23, 17:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$2.32Jul 23, 10:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$2.26Jul 23, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$2.16Jul 23, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$9.50Jul 23, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$2.68Jul 23, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 22?$59.65Jul 21, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 22?$205.70Jul 21, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?$0.63Jul 20, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$19.90Jul 20, 04:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in July?$0.14Jul 20, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?$2.30Jul 20, 03:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 17?$20.00Jul 20, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?$100.00Jul 20, 02:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $11.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 22:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 23:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.