Novel-Probability
0xde9a5f4ee4f66e312baba9814415540ceba437c9
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-53.61
Realised
$3.69
Win rate
13%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Algeria?
523 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.64
- YES
Exact Score: Ipswich Town FC 3 - 2 Sunderland AFC?
150 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Exact Score: Any Other Score?
107 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.58
- YES
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Belgium?
83 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.96
- YES
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Norway?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Sweden?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Colombia?
50 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.23
- YES
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Colombia?
40 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Colombia?
37 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Exact Score: Any Other Score?
34 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Ipswich Town FC 3 - 2 Sunderland AFC?$1.50Aug 22, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Ipswich Town FC 2 - 2 Sunderland AFC?$5.25Aug 22, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Ipswich Town FC 2 - 2 Sunderland AFC?$3.00Aug 22, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Ipswich Town FC 2 - 2 Sunderland AFC?$25.98Aug 22, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Ipswich Town FC 2 - 1 Sunderland AFC?$1.11Aug 22, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Ipswich Town FC 2 - 1 Sunderland AFC?$2.38Aug 22, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Ipswich Town FC 2 - 1 Sunderland AFC?$26.06Aug 22, 14:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$4.60Aug 3, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$4.65Aug 3, 11:31 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$4.89Aug 3, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$4.90Aug 3, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$3.20Jul 29, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$3.10Jul 29, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.99Jul 27, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.86Jul 27, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.18Jul 27, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.49Jul 27, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.18Jul 27, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.28Jul 27, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$0.51Jul 26, 19:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 19:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 15:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.