Hospitable-Bathhouse
0xde9f4ca6d5fc91c9d991b31b961b5aab629bcd36
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$430.46
Realised
$130.01
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- SPACEX
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
941 shares @ 55.2¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$920.30
$400.87
- NO
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
135 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$135.00
$68.85
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
715 shares @ 34.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$67.92
$-175.18
- NO
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
34 shares @ 63.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$31.11
$9.69
- NO
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
188 shares @ 13.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.92
$-7.52
- YES
Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 11.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.25
$5.50
- YES
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
2 shares @ 13.0¢·now 11.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.22
$-0.04
- YES
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.01
$-0.01
- NO
Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?
4 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.72
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump say "AOC" on Truth Social this week?$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill DÁKITI be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for February 27 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMOlympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Anxiety - Doechii" win Best Music Video at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 26, 11AM ET$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)$112.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMPortsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5$325.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMAl Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?$160.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMBlackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers$491.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$686.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?$0.00Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$17.60Jun 16, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$2.88Jun 16, 05:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $209.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 14:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.