Fumbling-Mare-Pocketwatch
0xdf0e455ca4896232ba935a8176e5e8cfbb38c02b
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
199
Open notional
$3.1K
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-156.78
Win rate
27%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 199- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
234 shares @ 64.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$141.57
$-8.19
- NO
Trump meets with Putin by September 30?
159 shares @ 94.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$133.56
$-15.90
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
148 shares @ 87.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$126.54
$-2.22
- NO
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?
162 shares @ 75.1¢·now 74.2¢·exp Sep 17, 2026$120.20
$-1.46
- YES
Will the Lions win the season series against the Packers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
500 shares @ 30.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$117.50
$-32.50
- YES
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
220 shares @ 68.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$103.40
$-46.20
- NO
Will LOUD Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2
152 shares @ 89.2¢·now 64.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$98.50
$-37.09
- YES
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
2500 shares @ 6.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$93.75
$-56.25
- NO
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
278 shares @ 41.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$77.84
$-36.14
- YES
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
191 shares @ 41.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.81
$-10.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$4.07Jul 29, 21:23 UTC
- MERGEWill the Biggest Pot at the Final Table Be <100m Chips?$30.00Jul 29, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?$16.00Jul 29, 21:17 UTC
- MERGEWill the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$3.62Jul 29, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$1.59Jul 29, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$18.70Jul 29, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Biggest Pot at the Final Table Be <100m Chips?$1.80Jul 29, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$47.77Jul 29, 20:55 UTC
- MERGEWill PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?$166.10Jul 29, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?$1.62Jul 29, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?$17.55Jul 29, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?$25.68Jul 29, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$47.77Jul 29, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?$0.60Jul 29, 20:32 UTC
- MERGEWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$172.00Jul 29, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$22.36Jul 29, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$149.64Jul 29, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$150.00Jul 29, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?$18.72Jul 29, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?$2.70Jul 29, 20:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
60 closed markets, 27% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $28.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 18:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 21:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.