Fumbling-Mare-Pocketwatch
0xdf0e455ca4896232ba935a8176e5e8cfbb38c02b
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$586.46
Total PnL
$-36.87
Realised
$-4.57
Win rate
38%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will Brazil be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?
267 shares @ 94.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$229.62
$-21.36
- YES
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
108 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$95.92
$0.54
- NO
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?
69 shares @ 98.1¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$66.79
$-0.90
- NO
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$43.75
$0.25
- YES
Will Pau Cubarsí be in Spain's Starting 11?
33 shares @ 92.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$30.03
$-0.33
- NO
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
104 shares @ 22.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$22.36
$-0.52
- NO
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
35 shares @ 71.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$22.05
$-2.80
- NO
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
23 shares @ 91.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.35
$-1.37
- NO
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
34 shares @ 46.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$15.30
$-0.34
- NO
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
28 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$14.56
$-0.56
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027?$8.60Jun 14, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027?$9.41Jun 14, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$55.44Jun 14, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$54.81Jun 14, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$61.84Jun 14, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?$67.69Jun 14, 15:18 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$88.29Jun 14, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$15.60Jun 14, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$52.46Jun 14, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 14, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$16.50Jun 14, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$173.85Jun 14, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$51.46Jun 14, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$35.24Jun 14, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?$82.36Jun 14, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?$4.77Jun 14, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27?$19.11Jun 14, 14:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$24.89Jun 14, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?$83.52Jun 14, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$24.89Jun 14, 13:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $57.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 10:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 16:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.