Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Probability
53¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$990.90
Liquidity
$26.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 53¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 4.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5242h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5242.1h
- 13:55SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 4.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 13:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5242h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 53¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 52¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 52¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 52¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 52¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 52¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 52¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 52¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 53¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 57¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 56¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 50¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 48¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 48¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 48¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 48¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).