Impolite-Brunch
0xdf580f7536144c205f80f6899f65e369bc80cdcb
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$3.4K
Total PnL
$-55.7K
Realised
$-735.54
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
6781 shares @ 46.8¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.9K
$-1.3K
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 51.3¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.1K
$-444.99
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
200 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$200.00
$34.00
- YES
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
132 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$131.58
$31.58
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
500 shares @ 34.6¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$92.50
$-80.50
- YES
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2620 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.31
$-100.87
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
55701 shares @ 45.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-25.2K
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
36469 shares @ 54.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-20.0K
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
11365 shares @ 24.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.8K
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
7484 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.23Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.30Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.30Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 9, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.