Shameless-Patron
0xdffb327b829682fd23ab6d5d7b55f7e75e478857
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
41
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-43.90
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
1023 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C or below on January 22?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the January meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the January meeting?
153 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or below on January 23?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or below on January 24?
106 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C or below on January 23?
96 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 23?
68 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6PM ET$11.29Feb 20, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6PM ET$7.46Feb 19, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HSBC fail by June 30, 2026?$2.67Feb 19, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?$0.26Feb 19, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?$0.63Feb 19, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$0.51Feb 19, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?$0.58Feb 19, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UBS fail by June 30, 2026?$0.79Feb 19, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$1.36Feb 19, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jan 30, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?$0.95Jan 30, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jan 28, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$0.95Jan 28, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or higher on January 24?$1.00Jan 23, 18:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?$1.03Jan 23, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UBS fail by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jan 23, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HSBC fail by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jan 23, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?$1.00Jan 23, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 22, 2026?$1.00Jan 23, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 23, 00:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 22, 20:20 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 20, 00:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.