Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Probability
42¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$30.26
Liquidity
$960.23
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 42¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 22.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 19:30SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+3.9pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.
Biggest hourly move: +11.8pp at 2d ago (to 43¢).
Show all 25 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +8.4pp → 42¢
- 17:00 · +9.2pp → 43¢
- 15:00 · +11.0pp → 45¢
- 20:00 · +4.1pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · +4.1pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · +6.6pp → 40¢
- 1d ago · +6.6pp → 40¢
- 1d ago · +6.6pp → 40¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 41¢
- 1d ago · +8.1pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +7.3pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +9.3pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +8.9pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +9.7pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +8.3pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · +10.9pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +8.9pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · +9.5pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +11.8pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +11.6pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 43¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any S&P 500 company announces between November 4, 12:00 PM ET, and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a qualifying company announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source will be official announcements from qualifying companies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 30, 2025
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (22.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.