Useful-Patty
0xe0863d867475d41b95cd730053edc019d82c0450
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$429.29
Total PnL
$-195.36
Realised
$-40.26
Win rate
9%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-10 House seat?
60 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$52.50
$-0.90
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-16 House seat?
50 shares @ 80.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$39.01
$-1.26
- NO
Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
60 shares @ 66.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$36.60
$-3.00
- YES
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?
60 shares @ 66.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$34.19
$-5.41
- NO
Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?
50 shares @ 71.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$33.75
$-1.75
- NO
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?
40 shares @ 85.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$33.40
$-0.60
- NO
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 59.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 18, 2026$28.75
$-0.75
- NO
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?
56 shares @ 57.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$22.55
$-9.19
- YES
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
50 shares @ 58.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.75
$-8.25
- YES
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?
60 shares @ 36.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$20.40
$-1.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.81Aug 3, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.03Aug 3, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$0.00Aug 3, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$0.54Aug 3, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$28.23Aug 3, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$1.94Aug 3, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$30.48Aug 3, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$5.00Aug 3, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?$21.11Aug 3, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$23.52Aug 3, 14:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CZ post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$13.26Aug 3, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?$1.81Aug 3, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30?$6.39Aug 3, 14:30 UTC
- MERGEWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$10.00Aug 3, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$11.16Aug 3, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$7.88Aug 3, 14:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?$16.68Aug 3, 14:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30?$31.97Aug 3, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$11.64Aug 3, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$12.01Aug 3, 14:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $15.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 11:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 16:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.