0xe0b92a754a66a61ee72619d33cc83b6c9431197d
0xe0b92a754a66a61ee72619d33cc83b6c9431197d
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$71.83
Total PnL
$2.65
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
58 shares @ 22.4¢·now 23.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$13.66
$0.66
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
10 shares @ 82.6¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$8.98
$0.31
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?
9 shares @ 88.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$7.78
$0.21
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
7 shares @ 83.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.42
$0.42
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
7 shares @ 88.5¢·now 87.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
133 shares @ 3.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$4.53
$0.53
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 4?
4 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$4.28
$-0.02
- NO
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
8 shares @ 52.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.26
$-0.04
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
24 shares @ 16.6¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.23
$0.23
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 4?
4 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$3.68
$0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?$3.93Jun 29, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 4?$3.89Jun 29, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.15Jun 28, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$5.00Jun 28, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 4?$5.16Jun 28, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4.16Jun 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$6.03Jun 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$8.25Jun 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.13Jun 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$5.03Jun 28, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 4?$3.67Jun 28, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$3.67Jun 28, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?$3.71Jun 28, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$3.67Jun 28, 11:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$1.07Jun 28, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 4?$4.31Jun 28, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$4.40Jun 28, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$1.01Jun 27, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.00Jun 27, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?$1.00Jun 27, 20:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $2.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 21:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 21:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.