Appropriate-Grandfather
0xe17a0bfb659a6058bbf39d25d55b4781c2abc6fb
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$508.68
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-485.00
Win rate
59%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
449 shares @ 60.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$406.35
$136.94
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
210 shares @ 38.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$87.15
$7.35
- DUNE 3
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
362 shares @ 12.1¢·now 3.2¢·exp Dec 20, 2026$11.58
$-32.22
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
4 shares @ 2.2¢·now 85.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.41
$3.32
- YES
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 13.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.20
$0.07
- NO
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?
1826 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-748.66
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 29 be greater than 2,400,000?
1438 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-273.22
- NO
Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
822 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-484.98
- NO
Will ETHGAS launch a token by December 31, 2026?
418 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-50.16
- YES
Rippling IPO in 2025?
394 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.34
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?$44.54Jun 15, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?$484.98Apr 23, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?$16.25Apr 23, 12:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?$1.00Apr 15, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMHouston Cougars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves$5.50Apr 15, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?$86.00Apr 15, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMAnother crypto hack over $100m before 2027?$248.00Apr 15, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hezbollah disarm by March 31?$390.00Apr 15, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMNCAA Tournament: Double-digit seed to make Quarterfinals?$439.00Apr 15, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMHapoel Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketball$928.00Apr 15, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYNCAA Tournament: Double-digit seed to make Quarterfinals?$320.47Mar 24, 12:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$39.10Mar 24, 07:03 UTC
- TRADESELLRemote IPO before 2027?$55.08Mar 24, 06:18 UTC
- TRADESELLRemote IPO before 2027?$225.00Mar 24, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$40.02Mar 23, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?$748.66Mar 23, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYRemote IPO before 2027?$311.20Mar 22, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?$43.80Mar 20, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$46.20Mar 18, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$317.10Mar 18, 16:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $232.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 04:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 14:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.