Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$54.29
Liquidity
$14.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $14.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 19:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: +8.0pp at 21:00 (to 14¢).
Show all 23 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +7.0pp → 12¢
- 17:00 · +6.5pp → 12¢
- 15:00 · +6.5pp → 12¢
- 14:00 · +6.5pp → 12¢
- 12:00 · +6.5pp → 12¢
- 11:00 · +6.5pp → 12¢
- 09:00 · +6.5pp → 12¢
- 08:00 · +6.5pp → 12¢
- 06:00 · +6.5pp → 12¢
- 05:00 · +6.5pp → 12¢
- 03:00 · +8.0pp → 14¢
- 02:00 · +8.0pp → 14¢
- 00:00 · +8.0pp → 14¢
- 23:00 · +8.0pp → 14¢
- 21:00 · +8.0pp → 14¢
- 20:00 · +6.5pp → 12¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 12¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 12¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 12¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 12¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 12¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 12¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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