Novel-Eleventh
0xe190723bb7dfb27d365cd2e8f717f0fd69664b5b
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$156.12
Total PnL
$-153.35
Realised
$-37.54
Win rate
0%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $730 Week of July 13 2026?
136 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$136.36
$1.36
- NO
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
13 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.98
$-0.02
- SPAIN
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
7 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$6.78
$2.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
3400 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-6.80
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?
3333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?
2787 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-13.94
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 9?
733 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 9?
497 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.49
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 11?
387 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.16
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on January 26?
288 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $730 Week of July 13 2026?$135.05Jul 17, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$4.08Jul 17, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 22 above $315?$61.06Jul 17, 07:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 Week of June 22 2026?$78.08Jul 17, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 Week of June 22 2026?$78.00Jun 26, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 22 above $315?$61.00Jun 26, 10:05 UTC
- REDEEMGolden Knights vs. Hurricanes$13.33Jun 26, 09:46 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 1?$59.16Jun 26, 09:46 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$67.07Jun 26, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 1?$59.10Jun 1, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Hurricanes$5.70Jun 1, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$67.00Jun 1, 09:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 30?$15.02Jun 1, 09:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$15.03Jun 1, 09:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?$101.78Jun 1, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?$101.69May 31, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$15.01May 31, 03:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$116.70May 31, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$116.25May 30, 05:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?$115.84May 30, 05:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $84.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 10:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 07:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.