Sweltering-Policy
0xe1d2f456a0bc188cb67615395a3e9a153a8e0ecf
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$806.78
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$21.84
Win rate
28%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
900 shares @ 85.4¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$805.50
$37.00
- YES
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
114 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.63
$-0.17
- YES
Will Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition?
400 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.40
$-0.40
- YES
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
170 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.25
$-0.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 23?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25?
1475 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 17?
1074 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-6.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 17?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on July 12?
680 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25?
580 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 28?$101.01Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 28?$101.01Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 28?$50.26Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 28?$100.10Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 28?$94.81Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 28?$5.19Jul 28, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 28?$100.00Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on July 28?$100.00Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 28?$101.01Jul 28, 19:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 28?$100.10Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 28?$100.10Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 28?$100.10Jul 28, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 28?$100.91Jul 28, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 28?$100.91Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 28?$100.10Jul 28, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C or below on July 28?$100.10Jul 28, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 28?$100.10Jul 28, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 28?$50.21Jul 28, 12:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 27?$100.10Jul 28, 10:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
29/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $74.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 15:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.