Bumpy-Premise
0xe1eaf4b8d14d7cf6012bc960858af549496318e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$504.52
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-139.92
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- NO
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?
410 shares @ 48.3¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$260.66
$62.26
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
492 shares @ 42.5¢·now 44.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$216.30
$7.42
- NO
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
52 shares @ 50.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$27.57
$1.56
- YES
Iran leadership change by March 13?
4610 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-102.99
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
1064 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
349 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31?
226 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- OL LYONNES
Spread: OL Lyonnes (-2.5)
207 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-99.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$65.00Jul 21, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$65.68Jul 21, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$29.70Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$69.14Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$85.92Jul 21, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$47.62Jul 21, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$127.77Jul 21, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$128.25Jul 21, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$19.70Jul 21, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$51.23Jul 21, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$27.00Jul 21, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$27.02Jul 20, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$27.00Jul 20, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$26.52Jul 20, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$3.73Jul 20, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$22.92Jul 20, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$6.53Jul 20, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$31.33Jul 20, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 15?$12.97Jul 20, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$24.61Jul 20, 15:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $31.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 17:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.