Serious-Authority
0xe1f16e2f82deeca14603e4fcc20b90a4f2aa3a05
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$2.8K
Total PnL
$427.23
Realised
$221.51
Win rate
62%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- NO
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
605 shares @ 13.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$605.09
$524.84
- YES
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
299 shares @ 3.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$299.33
$289.00
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
1132 shares @ 23.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$265.97
$5.66
- NO
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
390 shares @ 57.8¢·now 56.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$218.32
$-7.18
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?
168 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$156.87
$4.19
- NO
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
300 shares @ 47.6¢·now 43.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$130.42
$-12.25
- NO
Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
324 shares @ 37.9¢·now 36.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$118.40
$-4.51
- NO
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
170 shares @ 45.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2026$113.90
$37.40
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
848 shares @ 12.8¢·now 11.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$97.49
$-10.92
- YES
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
1091 shares @ 14.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$81.84
$-72.91
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?$66.00Aug 4, 12:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$0.00Aug 4, 03:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$297.92Aug 4, 03:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?$0.00Aug 4, 03:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m?$0.00Aug 4, 03:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?$0.00Aug 4, 03:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?$0.20Aug 4, 03:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?$135.73Aug 4, 03:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?$0.00Aug 4, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 3?$0.00Aug 3, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 3?$0.00Aug 3, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 3?$2.27Aug 3, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 3?$52.60Aug 3, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMNational Bank Open: Emerson Jones vs Lanlana Tararudee$0.00Aug 3, 21:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 2?$0.00Aug 3, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 2?$22.70Aug 3, 06:45 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.40Aug 3, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$17.88Aug 3, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 2?$0.00Aug 2, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on August 2?$0.00Aug 2, 22:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
42 closed markets, 62% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $3.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 15:55 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 12:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.