Skinny-Membrane
0xe227ece3760d5735c139af6e468b81cbb254bb41
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-140.08
Realised
$6.88
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 62-63°F on February 2?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?
200 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-10.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 22?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 7?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?
70 shares @ 39.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-27.84
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
60 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.36
- YES
Nipah virus in US by March 31?
50 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.10
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
50 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-7.15
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
43 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.86
- YES
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026?
36 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 22?$1.00May 22, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 22?$1.90May 22, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 20?$1.60May 20, 09:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?$1.01May 20, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026?$3.74May 20, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00May 20, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?$1.00Apr 16, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYMcDonald's CEO out by June 30?$0.65Mar 20, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYMcDonald's CEO out by June 30?$0.20Mar 18, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYMcDonald's CEO out by June 30?$0.15Mar 16, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?$1.05Mar 11, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by March 31?$5.00Mar 11, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?$1.00Mar 11, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?$1.00Mar 11, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UAE strike Iran by March 31?$1.90Mar 11, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.65Mar 9, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?$0.13Mar 9, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?$3.20Mar 9, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?$2.60Mar 8, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$2.70Mar 8, 19:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 4, 22:30 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 19:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.