0xe22e11e6217e584cbd5e5a9cb9639e3dc651708f
0xe22e11e6217e584cbd5e5a9cb9639e3dc651708f
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$48.54
Total PnL
$-75.93
Realised
$11.79
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- YES
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?
8 shares @ 79.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$8.49
$1.75
- YES
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$4.92
$1.92
- NO
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?
5 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$4.85
$2.86
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13?
4 shares @ 48.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$4.15
$2.16
- YES
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13?
3 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$3.26
$1.27
- YES
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?
3 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$3.16
$1.17
- NO
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13?
3 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$2.80
$0.81
- YES
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?
2 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$2.29
$0.30
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 79.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.25
$0.26
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
3 shares @ 69.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$2.22
$0.23
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?$1.93Jul 21, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?$1.95Jul 21, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$1.97Jul 17, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$1.69Jul 5, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs$3.09Jul 5, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?$2.01Jul 4, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs$2.90Jul 4, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs$3.08Jul 4, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?$2.04Jul 1, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$2.01Jul 1, 16:35 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$2.49Jul 1, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?$0.04Jul 1, 06:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?$0.07Jul 1, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYCary: Rei Sakamoto vs Jules Leroux$3.11Jun 30, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3PM ET$3.17Jun 30, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage$3.06Jun 30, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYQuito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto$3.06Jun 30, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?$3.07Jun 29, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?$1.53Jun 29, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?$3.04Jun 29, 20:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 21:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 22:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.