Female-Fourths
0xe30898ebedefd06a8acd3ea2bfdd7a00bd67309c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
128
Open notional
$951.39
Total PnL
$2.7K
Realised
$5.1K
Win rate
43%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 128- YES
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
549 shares @ 25.9¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$164.65
$22.45
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
1174 shares @ 9.3¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$88.02
$-20.87
- NO
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?
115 shares @ 67.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$81.02
$4.02
- YES
Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
436 shares @ 24.2¢·now 18.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$80.67
$-24.70
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
500 shares @ 10.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.50
$-7.50
- NO
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?
137 shares @ 34.9¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$38.90
$-8.75
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
133 shares @ 40.3¢·now 28.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$37.90
$-15.72
- NO
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
87 shares @ 63.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$37.55
$-17.46
- NO
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?
208 shares @ 12.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$34.37
$9.38
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
192 shares @ 52.2¢·now 17.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.75
$-67.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$13.20Aug 21, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$25.99Aug 21, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$1.52Aug 21, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$6.08Aug 21, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$0.16Aug 21, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$7.64Aug 21, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$0.16Aug 21, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$2.34Aug 21, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$3.12Aug 21, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?$2.18Aug 21, 10:39 UTC
- REWARD$5.24Aug 20, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.60Aug 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?$42.05Aug 18, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLRFK Jr. Out by December 31?$0.82Aug 18, 02:53 UTC
- REWARD$4.34Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thursday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16?$3.71Aug 17, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?$16.98Aug 17, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?$9.62Aug 17, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?$12.55Aug 17, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?$32.81Aug 17, 10:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
42 closed markets, 43% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $26.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 12:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 16:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.