RFK Jr. Out by December 31?
Probability
31¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$2.7K
Liquidity
$19.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 31¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $19.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.4h
- 13:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:34PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 28¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 38¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 37¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 34¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).