Far-Flung-Precedent
0xe3afb9fd570ba5f55f48dd34e762f240c62f29d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-439.17
Realised
$-32.14
Win rate
8%
91 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 4?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 4?
730 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-28.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 4?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?
323 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-19.35
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 4?
203 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?
201 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?
99 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs$5.17Aug 1, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: LNG Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana$5.19Aug 1, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$5.16Aug 1, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Polymarket Classic: Winner$10.38Aug 1, 13:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?$5.43Aug 1, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana$5.23Jul 30, 08:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 29, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.33Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.01Jul 29, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?$5.03Jul 29, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?$6.18Jul 29, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?$5.20Jul 29, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.01Jul 29, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.01Jul 29, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?$0.04Jul 4, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?$2.64Jul 4, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?$1.03Jul 4, 22:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?$1.03Jul 4, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-07-04?$12.57Jul 4, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-04?$10.08Jul 4, 22:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 91 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
91 closed markets, 8% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 06:36 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 13:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 91 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.