Polished-Cough
0xe3e5e43f83288dadb702fd8eb8d483289ea99410
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$32.99
Total PnL
$-35.97
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Vance say "Epic Fury" during Air Force Academy Address?
11 shares @ 45.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 28, 2026$11.06
$6.06
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.72
$4.72
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
17 shares @ 30.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.42
$1.42
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.71
$-0.29
- YES
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
23 shares @ 22.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.64
$-4.36
- YES
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
22 shares @ 23.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.45
$-4.55
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
22 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.96
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
21 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk attend the 2026 State of the Union address?
20 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
14 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMRoland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo$10.98May 28, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo$7.08May 28, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vance say "Epic Fury" during Air Force Academy Address?$5.11May 28, 10:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$0.00May 28, 08:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$7.46May 28, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$5.12May 28, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$0.00May 28, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$5.25May 28, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$5.08May 28, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$5.16May 28, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$5.08May 28, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$5.00May 19, 17:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Elon" or "Musk" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)$8.62May 19, 12:04 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?$7.14May 19, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (March 29)$15.49May 19, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$5.00Mar 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Elon" or "Musk" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)$5.00Mar 22, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (March 29)$10.00Mar 22, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by December 31?$5.00Mar 22, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill JD Vance clap between 70–79 times during the State of the Union?$0.00Mar 22, 10:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $4.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 17, 12:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 28, 15:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".